Park Jae Kyu, President of Kyungnam University (KU) interviewed with The Korea Times in regard to “South Korea needs multifaceted strategy to bring NK to dialogue.” The following is adapted from the contents of the interview between the reporter Lee Hyo-jin from The Korea Times and KU President Park Jae Kyu (News from The Korea Times for March 22nd, 2024).
Q1. At the beginning of this year, tensions on the Korean Peninsula escalated to the highest level in several years. The Kim Jong-un regime started 2024 by declaring South Korea a "primary foe" in accordance with its constitution and followed up with military threats and missile launches. How should our country respond?
A. In response to this, President Yoon Suk Yeol warned North Korea that "multiple times stronger retaliation" would be forthcoming in case of provocation. He has decided to utilize "peace through strength" based on the robust South Korea-U.S. alliance and extended deterrence. However, I believe that rather than a onesided policy of deterrence, a "multifaceted strategy" should be pursued. While President Yoon's flexibility towards North Korea has been significantly constrained due to North Korea's strengthening of its nuclear and missile programs and refusal to engage in dialogue, a unilateral policy of sanctions and pressure on North Korea could provide rational grounds for Pyongyang to strengthen its nuclear arsenal. While it is necessary to enhance deterrence based on trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan, it is also important to actively pursue a multifaceted strategy to lead North Korea to the dialogue table by building cooperative relationships with China and Russia.
Q2. 2024 has dawned anew. How will inter-Korean relations unfold?
A. 2024 is likely to be a "very difficult year," and crisis management will be challenging due to the lack of mechanisms to control border clashes and overall instability in Northeast Asia. In particular, the nullification of the inter-Korean military pact of Sept. 19, 2018 has increased the risk of "accidental situations" due to the dissolution of mechanisms designed to prevent military conflicts and create buffer zones that deter mutual misunderstandings. Given that South Korea detonated the joint liaison office with North Korea citing the dissemination of anti-North leaflets in 2020, if leaflet drops and loudspeaker broadcasts in frontline areas were to resume, there is a possibility of military conflict.
Q3. The United States is facing a presidential election this year. What will be the situation between North Korea and the United States?
A. North Korea is expected to continue provocations in protest against the joint military drills between South Korea and the United States, which could escalate as the US Presidential election scheduled for November approaches. Instead of negotiating with the Joe Biden administration, North Korea is expected to maintain a hard-line policy while awaiting the election results. There is also the possibility that North Korea maylaunch intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) or conduct its seventh nuclear test to emphasize the failure of the Biden administration's North Korea strategy. If the return of former President Donald Trump to the White House were to be realized, it could challenge Yoon's foreign policy of strengthening trilateral cooperation with Washington and Tokyo to counter Pyongyang's nuclear threats. The overarching goal of current U.S. foreign policy is to keep China in check. If Trump were to be re-elected, it is expected that contributions to this trilateral cooperation towards achieving that goal will be evaluated.
Q4. Are there any other developments in the Northeast Asian region?
A. Another noteworthy development in the Northeast Asian region is the growing relationship between Pyongyang and Moscow. Choe Sun-hui, North Korea's top diplomat, recently visited Russia and held talks with President Vladimir Putin. The content of their discussions has not been disclosed by either side, but this meeting has raised concerns among South Korea and Western countries about deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. However, there are limits to their military partnership. Russia cannot afford to provide advanced military technology to North Korea as it cannot completely ignore its relations with the international community and international norms. Instead, Moscow and Pyongyang are expected to focus on enhancing their relationship through some form of economic cooperation. China's stance could be another important factor that could influence the scope of Pyongyang-Moscow relations. China is not expected to welcome closer military ties between Russia and North Korea, and it would be difficult for it to accept this trilateral alliance. China does not see Russia and North Korea as equal entities and does not want their instability to undermine its core interests.
Q5. Tensions are escalating on the Korean Peninsula. What are some prospects?
A. Some analysts predict that tensions on the Korean Peninsula will escalate into a "new Cold War" with South Korea, the United States, and Japan on one side, and North Korea, China, and Russia on the other. However, I do not expect a new Cold War to intensify beyond its present state. The current rivalries are different in nature from the previous Cold War between the former Soviet Union and the United States, and they are different from the ideological confrontations and extreme confrontations between those two blocs. The competition between the U. S. and China is not about trying to eliminate each other. Instead, the two countries share the need to manage their bilateral and external relations stably. Furthermore, despite occasional confrontational situations between the U. S. and China, between South Korea and China, and between China and Japan, their economies are still interconnected. Along with the delicate bilateral relations between these three countries, the political timelines of the three countries can be a factor in early dialogue. Also, the upcoming South Korean general election in April and China's two major political events, the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, will make it difficult to take prompt actions.
